Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.467258 1.531813 1.598827 1.673814 1.755654 1.842573 1.942281
2026-02-01 1.380341 1.465597 1.557008 1.662960 1.783234 1.916570 2.077066
2026-02-08 1.316270 1.414566 1.522460 1.650848 1.801070 1.973390 2.189250
2026-02-15 1.264163 1.371467 1.491448 1.637280 1.812235 2.018832 2.286844
2026-02-22 1.230814 1.346603 1.478250 1.641404 1.841781 2.085072 2.411810
2026-03-01 1.182458 1.301336 1.438086 1.609932 1.824600 2.090669 2.457530
2026-03-08 1.144815 1.266694 1.408412 1.588810 1.817795 2.107269 2.516830
2026-03-15 1.114953 1.239861 1.386576 1.575633 1.819332 2.133418 2.589416
2026-03-22 1.104620 1.235812 1.391801 1.595841 1.863935 2.218011 2.749574
2026-03-29 1.098828 1.236749 1.402763 1.623242 1.918716 2.319140 2.942552
2026-04-05 1.078258 1.218608 1.388975 1.617644 1.928397 2.357408 3.043511
2026-04-12 1.061477 1.204525 1.379622 1.617141 1.944501 2.405125 3.162880
2026-04-19 1.031781 1.173954 1.348941 1.587983 1.920573 2.394650 3.189950
2026-04-26 1.012670 1.156163 1.334031 1.579232 1.924640 2.425503 3.288254
2026-05-03 0.993924 1.138267 1.318337 1.568644 1.925279 2.450756 3.378993
2026-05-10 0.975574 1.120357 1.302025 1.556464 1.922790 2.470619 3.461723
2026-05-17 0.964795 1.111801 1.297591 1.560276 1.943506 2.527646 3.618117
2026-05-24 0.941624 1.086688 1.270585 1.531648 1.914691 2.503425 3.617906
2026-05-31 0.923142 1.067283 1.250703 1.512404 1.899124 2.499762 3.657164
2026-06-07 0.908266 1.052258 1.236288 1.500385 1.893884 2.512590 3.730300
2026-06-14 0.905685 1.053197 1.243220 1.518820 1.935761 2.606531 3.981402
2026-06-21 0.905613 1.057362 1.254516 1.543785 1.988841 2.723614 4.302919
2026-06-28 0.894651 1.046823 1.245439 1.538687 1.994059 2.756795 4.441616